Alpex Solar is a high‑growth, SME‑listed solar module manufacturer with rapidly scaling revenues, improving profitability and ongoing capex in solar cells and backward integration, but also rising execution, working‑capital and sector risks.

Below is a structured technical and fundamental view, followed by future outlook. All numbers are approximate and rounded.

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1. Business snapshot

- NSE Emerge: ALPEXSOLAR; listed on 15 Feb 2024 at ~₹329 vs IPO price ₹115. (ipoji.com)

- Business: Manufacturing of solar PV modules (mono PERC, TOPCon, glass‑glass), EPC/solar pumps, and now moving into solar cell manufacturing and aluminium frames. (alpexsolar.com)

- Capacity:

- Existing module capacity ~1.2 GW, being expanded to 2.4 GW.

- Planned solar cell capacity 1.6 GW (first 500 MW phase to start commercial production in FY26).

- Aluminium frame plant ~12,000 MT/year. (pv-magazine-india.com)

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2. Fundamental analysis

2.1 Recent financial performance (consolidated)

Approximate consolidated financials (FY end March, in ₹ crore):

| FY | Revenue | YoY Growth | Net Profit | Net Margin | EBITDA Margin |

|----|---------|-----------|-----------|-----------|---------------|

| FY22 | 165.6 | – | 0.2 | ~0.1% | ~4.0% |

| FY23 | 194.7 | 11.5% | 3.7 | ~1.9% | ~6.0% |

| FY24 | 412.6 | 112% | 29.1 | ~7.0% | ~8.9% (alpexsolar.com) |

| FY25 | ~780.2 | 89% | 83.5 | ~10.7% | ~16.4% (pv-magazine-india.com) |

| FY26 | ~2,223.3 | 185% | 201.5 | ~9.1% | ~14.4% (stockanalysis.com) |

Key takeaways:

- Hyper‑growth phase: Revenue has compounded at >100%+ over FY22–26, with particularly sharp jumps in FY24–26 as capacity ramped up and order book converted. (stockanalysis.com)

- Margin expansion, then mild compression:

- EBITDA margin improved from high single digits in FY24 to mid‑teens in FY25, driven by scale and better mix. (pv-magazine-india.com)

- FY26 shows slightly lower EBITDA margin (~14–14.5%) vs ~16% in FY25, suggesting some pricing/competition and input‑cost pressure despite higher volumes. (stockanalysis.com)

- Profitability: Net profit climbed from ~₹29 cr (FY24) to ~₹83 cr (FY25) and ~₹201 cr (FY26). EPS (diluted) for FY26 is ~₹80.5 vs ~₹34.1 in FY25. (stockanalysis.com)

2.2 Balance sheet, leverage and cash flows

- Leverage:

- FY25: Long‑term debt ~₹14–15 cr; Debt/Equity ~0.07x – very conservative. (marketsmojo.com)

- Balance sheet still relatively light on structural debt, giving room to lever for upcoming capex if needed.

- Working capital:

- Current assets and trade receivables have risen sharply as scale increased; trade payables also jumped (₹34.5 cr → ₹109.9 cr from FY24 to FY25). (marketsmojo.com)

- Business is increasingly working‑capital intensive, which supports growth but can strain cash flows and create reliance on short‑term borrowings.

- Cash flows:

- Operating cash flow turned strongly positive in FY25 (~₹68 cr vs negative in FY24) but heavy capex and working capital absorption kept free cash flow negative over FY24–26. (marketsmojo.com)

- This is typical of a high‑growth, expansion‑phase manufacturer, but it heightens execution and funding risk.

2.3 Returns and efficiency

- ROE / ROCE:

- MarketsMojo places ROE ~27–28% and ROE well above most listed electrical‑equipment peers, while Dhan shows ROCE ~50%+ in recent data – both very strong, driven by high growth and improving margins. (marketsmojo.com)

- Asset turnover:

- Sales‑to‑capital‑employed around ~1.9x in FY25, improving with utilisation of recently added capacity. (marketsmojo.com)

Overall, on fundamentals Alpex currently looks like a high‑growth, high‑ROE, low‑debt manufacturer in an expanding sector, but with free‑cash‑flow and working‑capital stress typical of aggressive expansion.

2.4 Valuation (broad picture, not a recommendation)

Using the latest available numbers:

- Share price & market cap (recent):

- Around ₹880–890 per share as of late June / early July 2026; market cap ~₹2,200–2,300 cr. (stockanalysis.com)

- Live price will differ; please check your trading platform for the current quote.

- Earnings multiple:

- FY26 EPS (diluted) ~₹80.5; at ~₹880–890, stock trades around 11–12x FY26 earnings. (stockanalysis.com)

- This is significantly lower than the ~28x TTM PE indicated by MarketsMojo when FY26 numbers were not fully in the base, reflecting both earnings catch‑up and some price correction. (marketsmojo.com)

- P/B and peer context:

- P/B around 4.5–5x, a premium to the broad market but in line with other high‑growth renewables/electrical peers (several trade 4–10x book). (marketsmojo.com)

- On growth metrics (revenue and EPS CAGR), the company is currently outgrowing most listed peers, which explains part of the premium. (marketsmojo.com)

From a purely numerical standpoint, the stock has re‑rated down from extremely rich multiples post‑IPO to more moderate levels, while earnings have ramped up sharply. Whether this is attractive depends entirely on individual risk tolerance and view on sustainability of growth and margins.

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3. Technical analysis (as of end‑June / early‑July 2026)

3.1 Trend and momentum indicators

From Dhan’s technical page (29 June 2026) and other sources: (dhan.co)

- Price vs Moving Averages (Daily):

- Price ~₹888.75 is below short‑ and medium‑term SMAs (5, 10, 20, 50, 200‑SMA all giving bearish signals, except 100‑SMA).

- EMAs (5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200) are also bearish.

- This typically reflects a stock in correction / down‑trend on short‑ to medium‑term timeframe after a prior major up‑move.

- Oscillators:

- RSI(14) ~41–42 – in neutral zone, but closer to oversold than overbought.

- Williams %R ~‑87 – in oversold territory.

- MACD is bearish, ROC negative, indicating downtrend / loss of momentum.

- ADX ~13 – weak trend strength, price is choppy within a correcting range.

- Volatility & liquidity:

- Annualised volatility over the last year is >50%, and institutional holding is low (FII + DII ~3.8%, mutual funds 0%). (marketsmojo.com)

- Being an SME EMERGE stock, liquidity is lower and intraday moves can be sharp and gap‑prone.

Interpretation: technically, Alpex appears to be in a corrective phase with weak trend and mild oversold readings. There are signs of selling exhaustion, but no strong, confirmed reversal signal purely from indicators.

3.2 Support and resistance (very short‑term, pivot‑based)

Choice India (3 July 2026) gives intraday pivot levels around then: (choiceindia.com)

- Pivot point: ~₹887

- Immediate resistance zones: ~₹918, ₹950, ₹981

- Immediate support zones: ~₹855, ₹824, ₹792

For positional traders:

- Sustaining below ₹850–860 increases risk of a deeper correction towards the ₹800–820 band.

- Sustained close above ₹920–930 would be the first sign of strength, with follow‑through needed above ~₹950–980 to confirm trend resumption.

These levels change with price action; they should be treated only as reference zones, not fixed numbers.

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4. Future outlook

4.1 Sector tailwinds

- India targets 280 GW solar capacity by 2030 within 500 GW total renewables, implying continued strong module demand. (alpexsolar.com)

- Government programs (rooftop solar, PM‑Surya Ghar, manufacturing incentives, ALMM, import duties) support domestic manufacturing, though policy is evolving and sometimes lumpy.

Overall, the macro backdrop for solar equipment remains favourable, but pricing power and utilisation can be cyclical.

4.2 Company‑specific growth drivers

1. Scale‑up of module capacity

- Ramp from 1.2 GW to 2.4 GW modules should provide operating leverage if demand sustains and order book remains strong. (alpexsolar.com)

2. Solar cell project (vertical integration)

- Planned 1.6 GW cell line with 500 MW Phase‑1 targeted to start commercial production in FY26. Success here could:

- Reduce dependence on imported cells (key cost item),

- Improve margins and supply security,

- Differentiate Alpex vs pure module assemblers. (pv-magazine-india.com)

- However, this is execution‑heavy capex – delay, yield losses or technology issues could impact returns.

3. Aluminium frame plant & backward integration

- 12,000 MT/year aluminium frame capacity can lower module costs and provide a separate revenue stream. (pv-magazine-india.com)

4. Client mix and order book

- The company services marquee customers (NTPC, Tata Power Solar, Luminous, etc.) and had an open order book of ~₹404 cr as of 31 March 2024, which has underpinned the FY24–26 ramp‑up. (alpexsolar.com)

5. Improving institutional interest (off a low base)

- FII holding has risen from ~0.7% (Sep 2024) to ~3.4% (Dec 2025), even though mutual funds are still absent. This indicates growing but still limited institutional participation. (marketsmojo.com)

4.3 Key monitorables / risks

1. Execution risk on cell line and capex

- Timely completion, yield, and offtake for the new cell capacity are critical. Any mis‑step can quickly affect margins and balance sheet, given the capital intensity.

2. Working‑capital and cash‑flow discipline

- Receivable cycles, inventory management and dependence on supplier credit need close watch. Despite strong profits, free cash flow has been consistently negative due to expansion. (stockanalysis.com)

3. Margin sustainability

- FY26 margins are slightly lower than FY25 despite much higher volume, signalling pressure from:

- Module ASP decline,

- Raw‑material price swings,

- Competitive bidding in EPC / pump businesses.

- Sustaining double‑digit EBITDA margins will be crucial to justify valuations.

4. SME platform risks (liquidity and volatility)

- Limited institutional presence and SME listing can mean:

- Higher susceptibility to sharp moves,

- Wider bid‑ask spreads,

- Potential perception of “operator” activity in extreme phases.

- Migration to mainboard in future (if/when it happens) could improve liquidity but is not assured in any fixed timeframe.

5. Regulatory / policy risk

- Changes in customs duty, ALMM norms, or solar tender design can alter the economics of domestic module/cell manufacturing.

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5. Summary view

- Fundamentally, Alpex Solar today looks like a high‑growth, high‑ROE, low‑debt solar manufacturer in an expansion phase, with a strong order book and visible capacity additions (modules, cells, aluminium frames).

- Valuation has cooled from post‑IPO exuberance; on latest numbers, the stock trades around 11–12x FY26 EPS and ~4.5–5x book, which is not “cheap” in absolute terms but is consistent with high‑growth renewable names.

- Technically, the stock is in a corrective / consolidating phase with weak trend, mild oversold signs and key support in the mid‑₹800s / low‑₹800s zone, and resistance in the ₹920–980 band, making it volatile for short‑term traders.

- Future returns will largely depend on:

- Successful execution of the solar cell line and capacity ramps,

- Managing working‑capital and capex without over‑leveraging,

- Maintaining margins in a competitive, price‑sensitive market.

This is an example analysis and not a buy/sell/hold recommendation. Any decision should be based on your risk profile, time horizon and independent validation of numbers from your broker/terminal.

If you have any further queries, please connect with us on 022-6290-10141 (Timings : 09.00 AM to 05.00 PM) or you can email us on info@cniinfoxchange.com