Base case for the week of 15–19 December 2025 is a mildly positive but range‑bound Nifty, with dips likely being bought as long as key supports hold.

1. Trend and bias (short term)

- Nifty has reclaimed and held above the 26,000 mark after a Fed‑driven rebound and RBI’s 25 bps rate cut, signalling improving risk sentiment near-term. (business-standard.com)

- Price action and momentum indicators still favour the ongoing uptrend, but with signs of profit booking at higher levels. (m.economictimes.com)

2. Key levels to track (for next week)

_Not investment advice; levels are for illustration and trading reference only._

- Immediate support zone:

- 26,000 (psychological / round number)

- 25,850–25,900: regarded as a “sacrosanct” support band by multiple technical desks (20‑day EMA / recent swing base). (moneycontrol.com)

- Below that, 25,700–25,750 is the next important support cluster from recent pullbacks. (livemint.com)

- Resistance / upside levels:

- First resistance around 26,150–26,250. A sustained close above this would strengthen the bullish case. (icicidirect.com)

- Above that, technical views converge on 26,300–26,325 as a heavy supply zone; a clear breakout here opens room toward 26,500 in the near term. (moneycontrol.com)

- Probable trading range next week:

- 25,700 – 26,500, with intraday spikes beyond this band possible on news/flows.

3. Derivatives & volatility read‑through

- Recent weekly options data had indicated a 25,500–26,000 near‑term band; with spot now above 26k, the range is gradually shifting higher but still suggests consolidation rather than a vertical move. (moneycontrol.com)

- India VIX has been relatively low (near 10–14 in recent sessions), which usually supports a slow, grinding trend with intermittent profit booking, not a sharp one‑way move. (icicidirect.com)

4. Macro and flow triggers to watch

- RBI’s recent rate cut and upgraded growth projections are supportive for banks and domestic cyclicals and help underpin the index on declines. (icicidirect.com)

- At the same time, FII outflows and rupee weakness near record lows around 90/USD remain a key overhang; any further stress here can cap rallies or trigger quick corrections. (reuters.com)

- Global risk‑on/off (Post‑Fed narrative, US data, EM sentiment) and any fresh domestic macro prints (inflation, activity data) will likely dictate whether Nifty tests the upper band near 26,300–26,500 or slips back toward supports.

5. Example trading stance (not a recommendation)

- Bullish‑to‑neutral traders often look to accumulate on dips closer to 25,850–25,900 with tight stop‑losses just below 25,700, targeting partial profit booking near 26,250–26,300 and trailing if a breakout sustains above that zone.

- Short‑term counter‑trend traders typically watch for rejection patterns near 26,300–26,500 to play for small retracements back toward 26,000, but risk–reward turns unfavourable if VIX remains compressed.

For live levels and order book data, please refer to the official NSE India site and your trading terminal; this view is purely directional and not personalized investment advice.

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